Big Sky Thinking

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Top 10 Ways to Make a Bad Decision

I'm usually a positive thinker, but I've observed that many leaders have an easier time committing to real change when there is a clear disadvantage to the status quo.  In that spirit, here's a quick Top 10 covering sure-fire ways to make a poor decision in your organization.  Have you seen others?  Share your comments and stories about what you have experienced.

10.  Make a decision based on money and time you've already spent.

9.    Play up information that confirms your current point of view.

8.    Ignore information that doesn't.

7.    Pay too much attention to the first thing you hear, or the first data you receive.

6.    Frame a decision only on the benefits OR risks, but not both.

5.    Wear rose-colored glasses when you are estimating the results.

4.    Wear doom-colored glasses when you are estimating the results.

3.    Believe that your "gut" is the smartest person in the room.  Corollary: Justify every decision with a quote by Malcolm Gladwell.

2.   Use nothing but data.

1.   Don't use data at all.

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Monday, September 14, 2009

Best of the Blog: Decision Making Traps

In reviewing the most recent Google Analytics info on this blog, I've been struck by the response to our posts on HBR's classic article on decision-making traps, which appeared some time ago. Based on the popular demand, I have posted below the links to each of the entries.

Part I: The Anchoring Trap

Part II: The Status Quo Trap

Part III: The Sunk Cost Trap (my personal favorite)

Part IV: The Confirming Evidence Trap

Part V: The Framing Trap

Part VI: The Estimating and Forecasting Trap

We're glad so many enjoyed these posts.

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Monday, December 15, 2008

Decision Traps and Ponzi Schemes

We have received great feedback from our readers on our series on decision traps, and they are also among our most read articles on this blog.  I ran accross an article today that discusses the real-world consequences of those traps: the $50B Ponzi scheme orchestrated by the former head of the NASDAQ.  For those of you who think that some people are too smart to fall into those traps, read this great analysis by Ken Hoffberg.   

To paraphrase Ken, the scheme demonstrates at least two of the traps covered in this blog:
Read for yourself, and assess where you might be falling into decision traps. 


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